Did FIFA plan for France, Spain, Argentina, and England to appear in the semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup? The answer may come as a shock to some — but yes, FIFA did indeed plan for these four sides to reach the final four.
The 2026 World Cup marks the first time since the world rankings were introduced in 1992 that the top 4 ranked teams have all reached the semi-finals. FIFA designed the tournament draw in a directed manner to ensure the top four sides in the rankings could not face one another before the semi-final stage.
A week before the World Cup draw was held in November of last year, the British network TNT Sports published a report about a change in the way the draw would be conducted. FIFA had devised a system whose aim was to keep the 4 top-ranked nations apart until the semi-finals, making clear at the time that Spain and Argentina — ranked first and second in the FIFA rankings — would be placed on opposite sides of the draw, alongside third-ranked France and fourth-ranked England.
For this to happen, however, there was a single condition — one that some might regard as mere coincidence, but which was in fact nothing of the sort. That condition was that each of the top four ranked nations had to finish first in their respective group, which is precisely what happened.
The idea, as reported by The Athletic, is inspired by a system that has been in use for years at the Wimbledon tennis tournament, where the first and second seeds are placed in opposite halves of the draw, while the third and fourth seeds are also separated to ensure they cannot meet before the semi-finals.
FIFA adopted the same principle following the expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams — a change that introduced an additional round of 32, making it possible for group-stage winners to face each other in the round of 32 for the first time.
Under the previous 32-team format, group winners faced runners-up directly in the round of 16, which automatically prevented any early clash between group leaders.
Under the new format, however, two group winners can now meet in the round of 16, which has already happened on more than one occasion in the current tournament — prompting FIFA to pre-assign the strongest sides to separate paths.
The protection was not absolute; it applied only to teams that finished top of their groups. If any of the four had finished as runners-up, they would have moved into a different bracket and could potentially have faced another highly ranked team at an earlier stage.
Spain, Argentina, France, and England all successfully topped their groups, thereby retaining the positions mapped out for them in the draw, before navigating three consecutive knockout matches to secure their places in the semi-finals.
Spain eliminated Austria, then Portugal and Belgium; Argentina knocked out Cape Verde, Egypt, and Switzerland; France saw off Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco; and England beat the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mexico, and Norway.
Those paths were far from straightforward, as all four sides faced strong opponents and some required extra time to clinch qualification — confirming that the draw system provided the route but did not guarantee safe passage.
The system produced a semi-final pairing of Spain against France and England against Argentina, making this the first time the golden four has comprised the four highest-ranked sides since the FIFA rankings were launched.
When announcing the draw format, FIFA stated that the objective was to preserve competitive balance — though the system also increased the chances of the most prominent and popular teams remaining in the tournament through to the final week.
This approach is not unique to football; major tournaments in various sports use the same principle. Beyond Wimbledon, the source of the idea, the UEFA Champions League also employs a similar system to place top seeds on separate paths.
It should be noted that the modification does not guarantee the top 4 will reach the semi-finals, as has happened in the current edition, but it does give the best teams a fair chance to avoid early elimination through direct clashes, keeping the battle for the title among the leading sides until the decisive stages — much as happens in the grand slam tennis tournaments.