The United States' commanding 4-1 victory over Paraguay has given American fans high hopes of reaching the final of the current edition of the World Cup, which their country is co-hosting with Canada and Mexico.
The Opta supercomputer has mapped out an extraordinarily difficult scenario for the United States national team at the 2026 World Cup if they are to reach the final on home soil and in front of their own fans — a path that would require them to overcome a series of the world's strongest sides, led by Argentina under Lionel Messi and Portugal under Cristiano Ronaldo, as well as England, before a potential final against Spain.
Despite the US team's strong start to the tournament, the statistical projections give them just slightly above a 3% chance of reaching the final, scheduled at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on 19 July.
The supercomputer predicts that the United States will finish second in their group behind Turkey, setting up an expected last-32 clash against Iran at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Should they pass that test, the Americans would then face reigning champions Argentina in the round of 16 in Atlanta — a potential meeting between the hosts and the legendary Lionel Messi, who leads his country's bid to retain the world title following a string of continental and international successes in recent years.
In the quarter-finals, the projections anticipate another heavyweight encounter against Portugal, led by all-time top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo, who remains the cornerstone of the Portuguese national team despite having turned 41.
If the United States manage to overcome the Portugal hurdle, the semi-finals could bring a highly anticipated clash against England under German coach Thomas Tuchel, who has reshaped the English national team around a philosophy that relies on collective strength over individual stars.
The scenario reaches its peak in the final itself, where the projections point to a potential meeting with Spain — the European champions and one of the leading title contenders — led by a young generation spearheaded by the talented Lamine Yamal.
The United States would need to achieve a series of unprecedented feats to navigate this daunting path, particularly given that they have not recorded a single victory over any of Europe's major national teams since a friendly win over Germany in 2015.
Despite the difficulty of the task, US coach Mauricio Pochettino maintains his confidence in his team's ability to go far in the tournament, insisting that football does not recognise the impossible and summing up his ambition in just two words: