US President Donald Trump has succeeded in crowning negotiations with Iran with an agreement in the form of a memorandum of understanding between the two countries. This is considered a major breakthrough after nearly four months of war interspersed with a ceasefire.
According to the Wall Street Journal's political newsletter on the agreement, its success or failure hinges on three factors:
First: the Strait of Hormuz. Trump hinted that the Strait of Hormuz — a vital commercial waterway through which Iran had been applying pressure for months — would be opened following the formal signing of the agreement on Friday. He said: "I am authorised under this" to reopen it. If it is indeed opened and ships resume passage through it, this could have an enormous impact on the flow of oil and a wide range of other goods, giving the global economy a significant boost. However, a great deal could happen between Sunday evening and Friday.
Second: the naval blockade. The White House imposed a naval blockade on Iranian vessels, with the aim, in essence, of economically strangling Iran. Trump announced on Sunday that he would lift this blockade in tandem with Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz. If the blockade is lifted, Iran may become more inclined to continue negotiating with the White House on other issues, as this could ease pressure on its economy.
Third: Israel. Israel was one of the biggest pressure factors on the talks over recent months, as it continued to strike targets inside Lebanon. Iran said this represented a reason to derail the agreement. Initially, Trump dismissed concerns about Israeli strikes against Iran, but in recent weeks he has grown angry at Israel's refusal to de-escalate. Israeli strikes continued into Sunday morning, prompting a stern response from Trump. Will Israel now stand down?
The Wall Street Journal concluded its report by asking:
These talks have certainly seen many incomplete steps and numerous mistakes over the course of months. But Sunday evening felt somewhat different, with a strong sense of relief in both the United States and Iran. Will Israel give these two countries the space needed to continue dialogue? And will it be difficult to rein in Iran's proxies? There are many surprising possibilities in this picture.