As attacks between Russia and Ukraine intensify and strike deeper into each other's territory, the prospect of an inevitable confrontation between NATO and Moscow looms on the horizon. Whether this confrontation shifts from a cold war to a hot one is a matter of time in an escalatory — rather than defensive — context, unlike the pattern of the past three decades, while the nuclear deterrence factor will play a decisive role in shaping the trajectory of the anticipated escalation.
The language of escalation dominates both the political and battlefield scenes in the Ukrainian crisis, amid explicit Russian warnings that the conflict could widen and transform into a direct confrontation with Western nations led by the North Atlantic Alliance.
Analysts assert that the conflict is not, at its core, between Moscow and Kyiv, but rather a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO and Europe as a whole, stemming from the absence of a collective security framework and the continued eastward expansion of the West.
Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that Western states have begun moving beyond merely providing support to Kyiv and are now preparing to fight a real war against Russia, citing the surge in European defence spending.
Putin's statements, made the day before yesterday, that the West — led by NATO — is preparing for war against Russia, his warning that Western support for Kyiv is transforming into genuine NATO preparations for a direct confrontation with Russia, and his threats of nuclear war, all carry a powerful message that escalation serves neither side — particularly following warnings from Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, that any Western move toward direct confrontation with Russia or any threat to its national security would lead to "catastrophic consequences" for the countries that take such a step.
If further factors are added to this accumulation of tensions, the crisis could spiral entirely out of control — among them, the statements by French President Emmanuel Macron that the French Navy intercepted an oil tanker as it passed near the coast of Sicily, in what he described as the latest measure taken by his country against the "shadow fleet" Russia uses to ship oil and gas and circumvent Western sanctions. He stressed that Europe will take all necessary steps to raise the cost of the war for Russia.
These developments coincide with an intensive European drive to compensate for the gradual decline in US engagement in Ukraine, placing the European continent before a new collision course with Moscow.
There is no direct war between NATO and Russia, but tensions remain high due to the war in Ukraine, rising military spending, and military incidents near Alliance member states' borders. Western experts and research centres consider that the risk of an incident or limited confrontation remains present, especially if a military accident or an attack on the territory of a NATO member state occurs.
Should a direct confrontation break out, it could begin through one of the following scenarios: missiles or drones falling on Alliance territory in a manner that causes casualties; an escalation linked to the war in Ukraine; or cyberattacks or sabotage operations deemed an attack requiring a collective response.
Nevertheless, there are no clear indications that Russia is prepared for a direct confrontation with neighbouring NATO member states — such as troop movements — particularly given that the Russian leadership has repeatedly denied any intention to ignite war with the Alliance, while relying on "hybrid warfare" methods, including aerial incursions and cyberattacks, aimed at unsettling and exhausting the West without reaching a direct confrontation.
Western assessments indicate that Russia continues to concentrate the bulk of its military capabilities on the war in Ukraine, making a full-scale confrontation with NATO an enormously costly and dangerous undertaking.