Global oil markets closed an exceptional quarter by any measure yesterday, heading toward recording their largest quarterly losses since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020.
After months of sharp volatility following the eruption of the war between the United States and Iran, markets today find themselves at a critical crossroads — between the fragility of a still-tense ceasefire, diplomatic talks shrouded in ambiguity, and economic repercussions that have begun to take clear shape from Berlin to Bangkok and Washington.
This momentum of news reveals a global energy landscape undergoing a profound reshaping. While oil prices retreat at a historic pace, driven by the return of supplies and a decline in the geopolitical risk premium, the political fragility of the Iranian-American agreement remains a factor capable of upending the balance at any moment.
In parallel, governments around the world are moving on multiple fronts: Washington is watching consumers' pockets on a symbolically important national occasion, Germany is preparing for the return of fuel tax burdens on its citizens, and Thailand is searching for alternative energy sources away from the risks of the Middle East.
The coming weeks will be decisive in determining whether this relative calm in oil markets will persist, or whether the fragility of the diplomatic agreement in Doha may reignite volatility once again, given the absence of any conclusive indicators yet on the success of the expected technical negotiations this week.
Oil prices recorded a historic decline during the current quarter, with Brent crude falling by approximately 38% and West Texas Intermediate dropping by around 30%, bringing both benchmarks close to their pre-war levels.
In yesterday's trading, the Brent August delivery contract rose marginally by 0.21% to $73.30 per barrel, while the more actively traded September contract gained 0.61% to $74.36. West Texas Intermediate also rose 0.51% to $71.11 per barrel. However, these slight gains do not alter the overall picture of a quarter in which crude recorded its third consecutive monthly decline, with Brent falling approximately 20% since the start of June alone and WTI down 19%.
Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, explained this collapse by noting that vessels previously stuck have become available as the number of tankers departing the Gulf has increased, leading to a temporary wave of additional supply that flooded the market. In a further sign of pessimism about future prices, Morgan Stanley forecast an implied surplus in global oil markets of 4.8 million barrels per day by 2027 — a significant figure reflecting the scale of the shift in supply-demand balances.
A Reuters poll also revealed that analysts have cut their oil price forecasts for 2026 for the first time since the war broke out, after five consecutive months of upward revisions, a clear signal that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has succeeded in calming concerns about long-term supply disruptions.
In a move reflecting renewed market competitiveness, Iraq's state oil marketing company SOMO offered substantial discounts on official selling prices to encourage buyers to import Basra crude in July.
Despite the sharp price decline, the political landscape remains clouded with considerable uncertainty.
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Doha, but a Qatari official clarified that they would not hold a high-level meeting with the Iranian side — casting doubt on the path toward converting the ceasefire into a permanent agreement and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz to navigation.
In a move reflecting the domestic political sensitivity of fuel prices, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on retail petrol station operators to lower their prices to coincide with the United States' celebrations of its 250th anniversary.
Bessent warned in an interview with Fox News: "I would encourage all gasoline retailers — some of whom are owned by big oil companies, some are independents, and some are international convenience store chains — to act responsibly… because we are watching them," in a direct message reflecting the US administration's determination to translate falling global crude prices into tangible relief for American consumers at a symbolically and politically sensitive moment.
On the other side of the world, Thailand is moving to bolster its energy security after its liquefied natural gas supplies suffered severe disruptions caused by the Iranian war, which disrupted shipments from the Middle East and pushed prices higher.
According to Bloomberg, citing informed sources, Thai state energy company PTT is in talks with a number of US LNG project developers to obtain equity stakes and long-term supplies, including discussions with Woodside Energy regarding its facility in Louisiana.
In a notable domestic development, Germany's so-called "fuel discount" expires today after two months in effect — a measure introduced in the wake of the sharp rise in oil prices resulting from the Iranian war, aimed at easing the burden on drivers.
Petrol and diesel prices are expected to rise significantly starting Wednesday, as fuel leaving storage depots and refineries from 1 July will once again be subject to the previous higher tax rate, an increase equivalent to 16.7 cents per litre including value-added tax.