Fitch Ratings has revised its 2026 oil and gas sector outlook upward to 'Improving' from 'Neutral', citing rising crude prices, which it expects to remain above $100 during the coming weeks.
In a report published on its website on Monday, the agency forecast that Brent crude will average $87 per barrel this year, compared with $68 per barrel last year, in a scenario that assumes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues until the end of July.
It noted that prices would be lower if the closure ends before that date, and higher if the waterway remains shut beyond it. The agency also forecast that Brent crude would trade between $100 and $110 per barrel during June and July amid the Strait of Hormuz closure, before falling to around $70 by September.
Fitch believes production will recover quickly after the strait reopens, given the absence of physical damage to oil infrastructure, with oil stored on tankers and in onshore depots sold first, followed by a resumption of halted production.
It said output would gradually rise back to near-normal levels within a few weeks, in line with the geological nature of the region and producers' ability to manage production according to OPEC quotas, with the market expected to return to a supply surplus during the final quarter of the year.
It is worth noting that strategic oil reserves are no longer merely an emergency tool deployed during transient shocks; after 100 days of the Strait of Hormuz closure, they have become the last line of defence against a broader price surge that could shift the crisis from the energy sector to the global economy as a whole.