Eurozone consumers, already damaged by the war in Ukraine, have adjusted their behaviour more quickly this time in response to disruptions caused by the Iran war, meaning its economic impact could be deeper and faster, according to a study by the European Central Bank published on Wednesday.
The war between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022 triggered an energy crisis and inflation, from which Europe had largely recovered. But the Iran war, which began on 28 February, has led to an unprecedented disruption to energy supplies.
ECB researchers analysed whether eurozone consumer responses to the potential economic impact of such geopolitical disruptions had become faster, and concluded that the evidence confirms this.
Price changes
Drawing on a consumer expectations survey conducted by the ECB, economists at the bank found that consumers increased their focus on price changes when the Iran war began, even though inflation was still around 2%, the ECB's target level.
Nearly half of survey participants said they were paying particular attention to price changes in March 2026 — a share comparable to that recorded in January 2023, when eurozone inflation stood at 8.6%, which would theoretically give far greater cause for concern.
ECB researchers commented in their blog, which does not necessarily reflect the bank's official view: