Capital Intelligence has affirmed the United Arab Emirates' long-term sovereign credit ratings in both foreign and local currency at 'AA-', and the short-term rating at 'A1+', while maintaining a stable outlook — a fresh confirmation of the strength of the country's fiscal and external positions and its ability to withstand regional and geopolitical shocks.
The agency said the rating reflects the soundness of the UAE's consolidated fiscal and external positions, which have formed an effective buffer against external shocks and demonstrated resilience during a period of regional military tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It also cited expectations that Abu Dhabi will continue to be willing to provide support to federal institutions when needed.
The agency noted that the stable environment, high per-capita GDP, a strong banking sector, and the government's accelerating efforts to diversify the economy and develop oil export routes away from dependence on the Strait of Hormuz are all among the key factors underpinning the country's creditworthiness.
The report affirmed that the UAE economy has shown considerable resilience despite a highly complex external environment, noting that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following US and Israeli strikes on Iran in February posed significant challenges to oil exports. It added that the UAE government responded swiftly to these developments by accelerating investments in energy infrastructure, including fast-tracking the implementation of the West–East 1 pipeline and expanding the port capacity of terminals located outside the Strait of Hormuz, thereby enhancing the country's export resilience going forward.
The agency expects maritime traffic to begin a gradual recovery in the second half of 2026, with markets regaining greater confidence by the first quarter of 2027, provided that negotiations between the United States and Iran continue and military activities cease entirely.
The agency also considered the UAE's withdrawal from the OPEC+ alliance as of May to represent a significant structural shift, giving the country greater flexibility to increase oil production in the coming period, in line with ADNOC's plans to raise production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027 under a $150 billion investment programme.
The agency forecast the UAE's current account surplus to reach 11.2% of GDP in 2027 and 2028 as trade and tourism activity recovers and oil exports regain momentum. It affirmed that higher average oil prices — which it expects to reach $80 per barrel in 2026 before falling to $70 in 2027 — have helped limit the impact of lower oil export volumes.
The report highlighted the strength of the UAE's external liquidity, noting that official reserves stood at $276.8 billion in April 2026, covering more than 221% of external debt due within the year, while the broader external liquidity ratio reaches 621% — one of the highest levels globally.
It added that these figures do not include the vast assets of the UAE's sovereign wealth funds, foremost among them the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), whose assets are estimated at approximately $1.1 trillion, providing the country with a strong financial safety net and significant capacity to withstand any future pressures.
On the fiscal side, the agency forecast the consolidated budget surplus to rise to an average of 4.4% in 2027 and 2028 as production and non-oil revenues recover.
The agency commended the swift measures taken by the Central Bank of the UAE, which launched a package to support the resilience of financial institutions, including the provision of additional liquidity in both dirhams and US dollars and a temporary easing of certain regulatory requirements — steps that contributed to maintaining stability in the financial sector.
Regarding the outlook, the agency explained that the stable outlook reflects its expectations that the country's strong external assets and large fiscal reserves will be maintained over the next 12 months, set against a continued relative dependence on oil exports and a complex geopolitical environment. It added that the rating could be upgraded within the coming year if geopolitical risks recede materially, economic diversification continues, and institutional frameworks are strengthened.