JP Morgan has cut its gold price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 by approximately 25%, signalling a more cautious view on the precious metal's near-term performance amid expectations of easing demand momentum and greater sensitivity to moves in real interest rates.
According to BN Crypto, the bank now expects average gold prices to reach around $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter of 2026, before rising to $4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter, compared with its previous forecast of approximately $6,000 per ounce by year-end.
The bank attributed the revision to a decline in demand from several key sectors that have supported gold buying, alongside growing sensitivity of the metal to real interest rate movements — a dynamic that could keep prices within limited ranges in the coming months, rather than resuming the sharp rally seen earlier in the market.
Real interest rates are widely regarded as one of the most significant factors influencing gold's performance, as rising real rates typically reduce the appeal of the non-yielding metal.